How Now, Brown Cow?

So, it wasn't a dream. A nightmare, OK, but a real one. There was no one to wake me up to a better world on that Wednesday morning, Nov. 9. I have to admit it depressed me. Badly. I just wanted it all to go away, but it didn't. So, life must go on. How will it? More specifically, what can we expect from the Trump administration?

  • First point: It's hard to tell. No candidate has ever acted and spoken as unpredictably as has Donald Trump. And although his acceptance speech seemed to herald a new spirit of reconciliation, subsequent events have made that less credible. The transition team is already in disarray. Trump's "You're fired!" has been applied already, to important people. And personal agendas are apparent, as in the son-in-law's ditching of Chris Christie, who reportedly had done bad things to the son-in-law's dad.
  • Second point: There is every reason to expect more bigotry. Mr. Trump's choice for Chief Strategist makes that abundantly clear.
  • Third Point: Obamacare will be dismantled. So, Trump wants to keep the prohibition against insurance companies refusing to insure people with pre-existing conditions. But they will be free to raise prices for those in that situation. So, millions of Americans would likely lose their health insurance.
  • Fourth point: The bond market is bleeding because of the expected "Trumpflation," specifically, new fiscal spending on infrastructure investment. Now, infrastructure investment would be highly welcome. However, I have a hard time seeing Republicans in Congress going along with spending increases for anything but defence. And if Larry Summers is right, Trump's approach, relying mainly on tax benefits for private entrepreneurs, won't go very far.
  • Fifth point: We may still see some short-run stimulation, although not necessarily of the good kind. The dismantling of (most) environmental and financial regulations should work that way, as should tax cuts, although tax cuts for the superrich probably would have modest effects on activity even though it should help the stock market. On the other hand, the Republicans in Congress might insist on spending cuts as well. Although Trump wants to keep Medicare, it can be privatised; and Social Security can be cut. That would hardly help the working class that he promised to help.
  • Sixth point: The long-term economic consequences could be very negative, even for those policies that may give short-term stimulus. That would definitely be true of environmental deregulation. Financial deregulation could have similar, though different effects, by making the financial system once again highly vulnerable to a new crisis. Along the same line, I am worried about the fate of the Federal Reserve under Trump. Its independence is already under pressure. Janet Yellen's term expires in a little over a year, and she is unlikely to be reappointed. Who or what would follow is anybody's guess. My personal fear is to get some kind of gold-standard nut. Who knows? Then there is trade policy, of course. Globalisation probably has hurt quite a few people; but rebuilding tariff walls would probably hurt just those people.
  • Finally, of course, I see serious risks to world peace and global stability. Trump's flirtation with Putin and other "strong leaders" looks ominous. And I fear that right-wing populists in Europe have been reenergised by Trump as well as Brexit. Who knows what will remain of the European Union after the French Presidential election or, for that matter, after Italy's Dec 4 referendum? I have for some time held a hope that the many EU crises could provide an impetus for the core EU countries to "form a more perfect union" (to borrow a phrase from the U.S. constitution), but I'm finding it hard to be very pessimistic.

Yet, the election of Trump is not the end of the world. The world will definitely go on. And we will all do our best to avoid the worst. Or even, to actually make the world a better place. How about that?